Here is the Iran situation as it stands. On Friday, Pakistani mediators confirmed they received an updated peace proposal from Iran. The proposal reportedly included Iran offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, while deferring nuclear talks to a later stage. Trump responded at the White House: "Iran wants to make a deal, but I'm not satisfied with it. Iran wants to make a deal because they have no military left." He also added: "We have all the cards." This tells you exactly where the negotiation stands. Iran is offering a trade. Trump wants the nuclear component in the deal. That gap is still wide. But the fact that Iran sent a formal proposal through Pakistan means the communication channel is open and both sides are talking. Brent fell $18 on the news. That $18 is the fear premium for imminent escalation. It came out. The $26 premium for prolonged supply disruption stayed in.

The Fed decision is the second story that matters enormously for India. The FOMC held at 3.5-3.75% on April 29, as expected. But the statement and the dissents told a different story. Four members voted against the hold, the most since 1992. The committee said "inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices." Markets are now pricing zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 and into 2027. This matters for India in a very specific way: RBI has been preparing for a rate cut cycle that assumed the Fed would be cutting too. If the Fed is on hold due to oil-driven inflation, RBI's window for cuts narrows dramatically. Rate-sensitive sectors like banking, real estate, and auto have been pricing in 2-3 RBI cuts this year. That repricing is going to be painful. FII selling of Rs8,047 Cr on April 30 was partly driven by this Fed signal.

What Cocky is watching today: 23,900 is the support level that held last week. A sustained break below it brings 23,800 and then 23,600 into play. The bulls need Brent to stay below $112 and need some positive Iran signal to hold the ground. The bears have the Fed, FII outflows, and a rupee at 94+ on their side. This is a session where the first 30 minutes will set the tone for the week. Watch whether institutions buy the open or sell into any strength. May state election results on May 4, which could add political volatility to an already volatile week.

for India specifically. India imports approximately 4.2 million barrels of crude per day. At $126 per barrel that is $529 million per day in crude imports, or roughly $193 billion per year. At the pre-war price of $82 that was $126 billion per year. The difference: $67 billion annually, or approximately Rs5.5 lakh crore. That gap shows up in three places: wider current account deficit, weaker rupee, and persistent inflation that prevents RBI from cutting rates. The rupee closed at 94.20 on Tuesday, its fifth consecutive day of losses. Every move toward 95 makes the import bill worse in rupee terms.

April was a brutal month for FII flows. Total FII selling in April: Rs59,619 crore. That is the largest monthly outflow in 2026. The number that should worry you is not the outflow itself, it is what it signals. Foreign investors are not selling India on Indian fundamentals. Indian corporate earnings have been broadly decent. They are selling because global risk-off sentiment triggered by $126 oil makes emerging markets unattractive regardless of fundamentals. When FII selling is macro-driven rather than fundamentals-driven, domestic buying provides limited cushion. DII bought Rs1,869 Cr on Tuesday against FII selling of Rs2,185 Cr. DIIs are absorbing the outflow but not offsetting it.

What Cocky is watching: 24,000 remains the critical floor. Technical resistance is at 24,300-24,400. If Brent stays above $120 through this week, expect fresh FII selling to cap any rally. The rupee at 94.20 needs to hold below 95, otherwise RBI intervenes, foreign reserves get drawn down, and rate cut timeline extends further. Reliance Industries Q4 results are due this week, the only earnings event that could provide a genuinely domestic catalyst. If Reliance guidance is strong on Jio and retail, it could stabilise sentiment regardless of crude prices. Watch that number.

Net profit: Rs 8,501 crore, up 20.87% YoY. Revenue: Rs 46,402 crore, up 13.4% YoY. Full year FY26: net profit Rs 29,440 crore up 10.2%, revenue Rs 1,78,650 crore up 9.6%. These are strong numbers. The profit beat was genuine. So why did the market sell off? Because the market trades the future. And the future, FY27 guidance of 1.5-3.5% CC revenue growth, is exactly what the bears feared. The midpoint of Infosys guidance matches the midpoint of HCLTech guidance. The sector is consistent. Consistently cautious.

Now the broader market. Nifty at 24,173 is its lowest in over two weeks. Technical picture has turned negative: resistance at 24,300-24,400, next support at 24,100-24,000. Two consecutive 200-point drops with no DII buying support. Brent at $103.68 is the macro headwind. Iran seized two ships in Hormuz on Wednesday. That is not a ceasefire story. That is a war-on-pause story. Every day Hormuz stays blocked, India's import bill grows, the current account deficit widens, and rate cut hopes recede.

What Cocky is watching tomorrow: 24,000 is the psychological floor. If Nifty breaks it, retail panic follows. The catalyst for reversal needs to be either a genuine Hormuz de-escalation or a positive result from Axis Bank or Reliance. Watch US futures overnight. If Wall Street reverses on $103 Brent concerns, India has nowhere to hide in the morning.

The overnight global picture is bifurcated. US markets hit record highs — S&P 500 +1.05% to 7,137, Nasdaq +1.64% to a new all-time high — on ceasefire extension relief. But the ceasefire extension came with the Hormuz blockade still intact, and IRGC fired on container ships in the strait yesterday. A Liberia-flagged vessel was hit. Two more cargo ships were targeted. Brent responded — now trading at $101-103. The same geopolitical event that sent Wall Street to record highs is keeping Brent above $100. Wall Street is pricing the ceasefire. India is pricing the oil. They are not the same trade.

The Infosys Q4 results at 3:45 PM IST are the defining event of today's session. Here is what analysts expect: PAT around ₹7,500-7,800 crore (up ~4-10% YoY), revenue around ₹46,500-46,700 crore (up ~14% YoY), EBIT margin around 21%. The Q4 numbers themselves are largely priced in. What the market will trade on is the FY27 revenue growth guidance range. HCLTech guided 1-4% last week and fell 10.8%. Analysts expect Infosys to guide 2-5% CC revenue growth. If they guide below 3%, IT sector takes another leg down. If they guide 4%+ with confident commentary on deal pipeline, IT sees a partial recovery. Infosys at ₹1,550 is down 17% from its 52-week high — the valuation requires at least 4% guidance to be justified at current price.

What Cocky is watching today: 24,200 is the key support level. Gift Nifty pointing to negative open around 24,300 — if Brent stays above $102 through the morning session and there's no positive geopolitical signal, Nifty drifts toward 24,200. Then at 3:45 PM everything resets based on Infosys. Watch the rupee — currently at 93.83 futures. If it crosses 94 during the day, it signals the market is genuinely worried about oil's impact on the current account. That moves everything — bonds, rate cut expectations, bank NIM forecasts. Cocky will update tonight with confirmed Infosys numbers and today's close.